0.7000 Still Blocks AUD/USD Rally as Bears Keep Control

AUD/USD caught a post-NFP bid, but the AUD/USD price forecast still leans bearish because the pair has not broken the 0.7000 ceiling.

AUD/USD bounce after weak US jobs data still runs into the 0.7000 ceiling

The Australian Dollar traded stronger against the US Dollar on Thursday after a weaker-than-expected US jobs report pushed back expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve rate hike, according to FXStreet. That is the bullish headline.

The bearish detail is cleaner: AUD/USD remained trapped inside a one-week range and was trading around 0.6918 at the time of writing, after touching an intraday high of 0.6943, its strongest level since June 23.

That makes this move look less like a trend reversal and more like a US Dollar repricing. The pair bounced because the Dollar leg weakened. It has not yet shown enough strength on the Australian Dollar side to reclaim the level that matters most on this chart.

“Bearish bias persists below 0.7000.”

That phrase captures the setup. 0.7000 is not magic. It matters because it is visible, crowded, and technically loaded. When price fails there, buyers lose urgency and sellers get a cleaner level to defend.

For readers tracking nearby dollar-sensitive setups, XOOMAR’s recent FX coverage on USD/CAD before the NFP shock and silver’s NFP-linked Dollar risk offers useful context on how one US data release can move several markets without necessarily changing their larger technical structures.

The NFP shock weakened the US Dollar, but it didn't fix the Australian Dollar's bigger problem

The US jobs print was the catalyst. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the economy added only 57K jobs in June, far below market expectations of 110K. The prior month was also cut down: May payrolls were revised to 129K from the previously reported 172K.

That combination pressured the US Dollar because it reduced the immediacy of the Fed-hike story. The FXStreet currency table showed the Dollar weaker against several major currencies on the day, including a 0.36% decline against the Australian Dollar and a 0.95% decline against the Japanese Yen. The Dollar was strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

The distinction matters. AUD/USD rose because the Dollar sold off after payrolls. The source material does not show a fresh Australia growth catalyst, a Reserve Bank of Australia surprise, or a commodity-linked impulse behind the Aussie’s move.

Before vs. after the payrolls shock:

XOOMAR analysis: a jobs-data bounce can be sharp without being durable. To turn this into a cleaner bullish AUD/USD price forecast, traders would need evidence that the Dollar weakness is not just a one-session reaction. The supplied source does not provide later Fed commentary, inflation data, Treasury yield moves, or updated rate probabilities, so those remain unconfirmed inputs rather than facts in this setup.

AUD/USD technical map: bears keep control while price holds below 0.7000

The technical picture is the strongest part of the bearish case. AUD/USD is trying to hold above the 200-day Simple Moving Average at 0.6865, but it remains below the 100-day Simple Moving Average at 0.7074.

That leaves the pair in an awkward zone. It has recovered enough to avoid an immediate breakdown, but not enough to prove a trend change.

FXStreet’s technical read points to a sequence of lower highs and lower lows since AUD/USD peaked at 0.7277 in early May. That is the pattern bulls need to break. Until they do, rallies into resistance look vulnerable.

The main levels are clear:

• Immediate resistance: 0.7000
• Next upside test after a break: 100-day SMA at 0.7074
• Current support attempt: 200-day SMA at 0.6865
• Recent intraday high: 0.6943
• Current area at time of writing: around 0.6918

Momentum is improving, but only modestly. The Relative Strength Index has recovered to around 37 after slipping into oversold territory. The MACD remains below the zero line, though the fading red histogram suggests downside momentum is easing.

That mix supports a cautious read. Selling pressure is cooling, but bullish pressure has not taken control.

A sustained move above 0.7000 would change the tone. It could open a test of 0.7074, and only a sustained move through that resistance zone would ease the bearish pressure enough to support a more constructive recovery phase.

Until then, the AUD/USD price forecast remains capped by the same problem: rebounds are likely to stay shallow while the pair trades below the 0.7000 region.

The numbers behind the AUD/USD setup stop at payrolls and the chart

The cleanest data in this story comes from the US labor market and the AUD/USD chart itself. The source gives enough to explain Thursday’s move, but not enough to build a full macro call around it.

Here is what is verified:

• Payrolls: 57K jobs added in June versus 110K expected.
• Revision: May payrolls cut to 129K from 172K.
• Spot level: AUD/USD around 0.6918 at the time of writing.
• Intraday high: 0.6943, highest since June 23.
• Key resistance: 0.7000, then 0.7074.
• Key moving averages: 200-day SMA at 0.6865, 100-day SMA at 0.7074.
• Momentum: RSI near 37, MACD below zero.

The outline for a deeper AUD/USD model would normally include Treasury yields, Fed rate-hike probabilities, RBA rate expectations, Australian inflation, labor data, and China-linked commodity signals. Those figures are not provided in the source material.

That absence matters. Without those inputs, the responsible conclusion is narrower: Thursday’s AUD/USD bounce is supported by weaker US jobs data and softer Dollar pricing, while the technical structure still argues against declaring a bullish reversal.

For AUD-specific context, readers can also compare XOOMAR’s coverage of AUD/USD around 0.6915 and RBA hike risk, but the present setup is still governed by the FXStreet levels above.

Fed traders, RBA watchers, exporters, and carry funds don't see the same AUD/USD trade

Different users of the same chart will draw different lines around 0.7000.

A short-term FX trader may see the move from below 0.6900 toward 0.6943 as a tactical bounce after a weak US data print. That is tradable, but it is not the same as a confirmed trend shift.

A macro trader would likely care less about one intraday high and more about whether AUD/USD can hold above 0.7000 and then challenge the 100-day SMA at 0.7074. The source says only a sustained move through that resistance zone would ease bearish pressure.

A corporate hedger with USD exposure may treat 0.7000 as a planning reference rather than a trading signal. The source does not provide hedging flow data, so this is XOOMAR interpretation, not a verified market positioning claim.

Retail traders face the cleanest trap. Round numbers attract attention, and attention can create bad entries. Chasing AUD/USD into resistance while RSI is only recovering to 37 and MACD remains below zero leaves little margin for error if the pair rolls over again.

Three AUD/USD scenarios now hinge on 0.7000, not the NFP headline

The next move is less about the headline payroll miss and more about confirmation.

Base case, supported by the current source: AUD/USD stays capped below 0.7000. The pair can bounce while downside momentum fades, but the bearish bias persists as long as lower highs and lower lows remain intact and price sits below the 100-day SMA.

Bullish repair scenario: AUD/USD breaks and sustains trade above 0.7000, then tests 0.7074. A sustained move above that zone would weaken the bearish structure and make the recovery case more credible.

Bearish extension scenario: AUD/USD fails again below 0.7000 and slips back toward the 200-day SMA at 0.6865. A loss of that support attempt would put the focus back on downside continuation rather than post-NFP relief.

The evidence that would confirm a bullish shift is simple: a sustained break above 0.7000, follow-through toward 0.7074, and momentum indicators moving beyond mere stabilization. The evidence that would weaken it is just as clear: another rejection below 0.7000 while MACD stays below zero.

For now, the AUD/USD price forecast is not bearish because the Australian Dollar failed to bounce. It did bounce. It is bearish because the bounce has not yet broken the level that would force the market to care.

Disclaimer: This XOOMAR analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial, investment, legal, tax, or professional advice. It does not provide buy, sell, hold, price-target, portfolio, or personalized recommendations. Verify information independently and consult qualified professionals before making decisions.

The Bottom Line

• AUD/USD remains technically bearish while it trades below the key 0.7000 level.
• Weak US jobs data softened the Dollar but has not confirmed a broader Aussie Dollar reversal.
• Traders are watching whether AUD/USD can break out of its one-week range or fade near resistance.