Prediction Market Odds

What real money says about Fed decisions, crypto milestones, elections, and macro outcomes. Odds from Polymarket, tracked every 15 minutes with 24-hour changes.

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Fed & Rates

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Volume $4M · resolves 2026-09-16

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

49%

Volume $4M · resolves 2026-09-16

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

50%

Volume $3M · resolves 2026-09-16

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Volume $2M · resolves 2026-09-16

Crypto

Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?

26%

Volume $4M · resolves 2027-01-01

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 4?

100%

Volume $377K · resolves 2026-08-04

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 4?

Volume $290K · resolves 2026-08-04

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 4?

100%

Volume $289K · resolves 2026-08-04

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 4?

100%

Volume $252K · resolves 2026-08-04

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 4?

Volume $228K · resolves 2026-08-04

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 4?

27%

Volume $189K · resolves 2026-08-04

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August?

Volume $169K · resolves 2026-09-01

Politics

Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

Volume $75M · resolves 2026-06-01

Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Volume $43M · resolves 2028-11-07

Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Volume $33M · resolves 2028-11-07

Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Volume $29M · resolves 2028-11-07

Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Volume $29M · resolves 2028-11-07

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Volume $18M · resolves 2026-12-31

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Volume $9M · resolves 2026-10-04

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

65%

Volume $8M · resolves 2026-10-04

Big Markets

LoL: T1 vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - KeSPA Cup Last Chance Qualifier

Volume $2M · resolves 2026-08-04

Odds show the Yes price as an implied probability. Prediction markets carry their own biases (longshot bias, thin books on small markets). Volume is the credibility signal.

Get this data via our free Predictions API → · economic calendar →

Frequently Asked Questions

Where do the odds come from?

Polymarket's public API. We track the top markets by volume in four categories: Fed and rates, crypto, politics, and macro, refreshed every 15 minutes.

What does the percentage mean?

The price of the Yes outcome, which reads as an implied probability. 30% means the market prices roughly a 3-in-10 chance.

Are prediction markets accurate?

Well-calibrated on average for liquid markets, with known quirks: small probabilities are often overpriced, and thin markets move on little money. Volume is your quality filter.

Do you store odds history?

Yes, every 15 minutes per outcome. The API and CSV expose the raw time series for research.

Data on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. See our editorial policy.