Manchin Puts Independent Leadership Council on Trial

On Thursday, former West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin launched the Independent Leadership Council with a narrow test: can independent candidates become more than a protest vote in the November midterms?

The 78-year-old former senator is running the project with his daughter, Heather Manchin, and plans to recruit and support independent candidates running for Congress, according to Time. The council’s website sells the effort as “an opportunity to fix politics,” a phrase broad enough to attract frustrated voters and vague enough to raise the obvious question: fix it how?

Why did Manchin launch the Independent Leadership Council on Thursday?

The timing matters because Manchin is no longer just criticizing the two-party system from the sidelines. He’s trying to build an organized vehicle around that frustration.

Manchin left the Democratic Party in 2024, shortly before the end of his Senate career, and re-registered as an independent. He had already spent years breaking with Democratic colleagues on issues including climate change and tax hikes on the wealthy, while arguing that the party had little room for more conservative Democrats like him.

His new council now gives that argument a campaign structure. At the Thursday launch event, several candidates attended, including California Rep. Kevin Kiley, who previously identified as a Republican and is now running for reelection as an independent.

The public pitch is simple: voters are fed up, so support candidates who aren’t locked into either major party. The political challenge is harder. Independent campaigns need money, field support, message discipline, and a reason for voters to treat them as viable, not symbolic.

“Our hope is that this is kind of our pilot, experiment, trying to prove it can be done,” Heather Manchin told CNN.

What is the council actually promising after its launch?

The Joe Manchin Independent Leadership Council says it wants leaders to serve people rather than parties. Its website frames the project in sweeping reform language.

“America was founded on the belief that freedom and competition make us stronger. Somewhere along the way, our politics lost sight of those principles,” the council’s website reads. “Decades of partisanship carved a divide most Americans never wanted. Instead of choosing sides, we’re changing the game by charting a new path that gives leaders the freedom to serve people, not parties.”

That is branding. The operating model is still coming into focus.

The Manchins told CNN that if the council decides to support candidates, it could help with campaigning, fundraising, and on-the-ground organizing. CNN also reported that attendees at the launch included Seth Bodnar, an independent Senate candidate in Montana, Todd Achilles, an independent Senate candidate in Idaho, and Michael Bridgford, an independent House candidate in Iowa. The group is also looking at races in Alaska and Washington.

Here’s the clean split between what’s known and what remains unresolved:

How does Manchin’s 2024 party break define the council’s lane?

Manchin brings instant visibility because his career already fits the council’s message. He served in the Senate for more than a decade after becoming a senator in 2010, built a national profile as a centrist Democrat, then left the party in 2024.

When he announced that switch, Manchin said both parties had abandoned compromise.

“Since becoming a United States senator in 2010, I have seen both the Democrat and Republican parties leave West Virginia and our country behind for partisan extremism while jeopardizing our democracy,” he said. “Today, our national politics are broken and neither party is willing to compromise to find common ground. To stay true to myself and remain committed to put country before party, I have decided to register as an independent with no party affiliation and continue to fight for America’s sensible majority.”

That biography helps the council. It also burdens it.

XOOMAR analysis: Manchin can credibly argue that he has operated outside party orthodoxy. But he’s not an outsider in the anti-Washington sense. He’s a former senator with decades in elected politics, so the council’s appeal depends on whether voters see his record as evidence of independence or as another insider attempt to repackage the center.

The polling backdrop gives the project an opening. Time cites a May poll showing majorities of American adults “have an unfavorable view” of both the Republican Party and Democratic Party. CNN also cites Gallup polling released earlier this year showing a record high 45% of American adults identify as political independents.

That doesn’t automatically convert into votes. Independent identification is not the same as independent voting behavior. The council has to bridge that gap.

How could the Independent Leadership Council affect the November midterms?

The council’s immediate tools, based on what the Manchins have said, are practical campaign support: raising money, campaigning in person, and helping organize locally. Those are the inputs independent candidates often need before voters take them seriously.

A useful early case is Kevin Kiley. He is already a sitting member of Congress, previously identified as a Republican, and is now running for reelection as an independent. That gives the council a cleaner test than a long-shot outsider campaign. If it supports him, the question becomes whether Manchin’s network can help an independent incumbent hold enough voters without a major-party label.

The Manchins are aiming beyond one race. They told CNN that if their support can help even one candidate win in the November midterms, they may be able to influence the 2028 presidential race.

XOOMAR analysis: The strategic logic is arithmetic, not romance. In a closely divided Congress, a small number of independent lawmakers could matter if they vote as a bloc or negotiate together. But the sources do not establish that the council has a formal bloc strategy, a shared platform, or commitments from candidates to act together.

The risks are just as concrete:

• Candidate quality: Recruiting independents is easier than recruiting independents who can win.
• Message discipline: “Fix politics” needs policy content before voters can judge it.
• Organization: The council says it may help on the ground, but it has not yet shown scale.
• Identity: Manchin says this is not a new party. That avoids one problem but creates another: what exactly binds the candidates together?

What would success look like before 2028?

The Independent Leadership Council doesn’t need to become a party to matter. It does need proof of life.

The first benchmark is whether it can recruit credible congressional candidates beyond Manchin’s personal orbit. The second is whether it can raise and direct money in visible races. The third is whether it can explain what “independent leadership” means when Congress votes on debt, energy, immigration, voting rules, and institutional reform.

A slogan can launch a council. It can’t hold a coalition together.

The next decision point is candidate support. Once the council chooses whom to back, voters will learn more from those choices than from the website copy. If the supported candidates share a clear governing style and can compete in November, Manchin’s project becomes an organizing hub for independents. If the council stays vague, it risks becoming a brand built around frustration, not a force capable of changing outcomes.

The Stakes

• Manchin is testing whether independent candidates can compete seriously in the November midterms.
• The council could give frustrated voters a more organized alternative to the two-party system.
• Its success will depend on whether independents can secure money, field support, and voter trust.