Retail Phone Scams Sweep 69% of Retailers as Theft Falls

In its 2026 study, the National Retail Federation surveyed retailers and found the story had changed: retail phone scams rose for 69% of respondents while shoplifting finally fell.

That shift matters because it came after years of rising in-store theft. The new NRF research, reported by PYMNTS, suggests retailers may be winning parts of the store-security fight, but criminals are moving toward fraud schemes that are less visible than someone walking out with merchandise.

Retail Phone Scams Overtook the Shoplifting Story

The NRF’s 2026 Impact of Retail Theft & Violence study was based on responses from 66 retail companies, representing 143 brands and roughly $1.7 trillion in annual retail sales. That gives the survey enough weight to matter, even if it still reflects reported experience rather than a full accounting of industry losses.

The headline number is easy to misread. It does not mean retail phone scam incidents rose by exactly 69% across the industry. It means 69% of retailers reported increases in phone scams. That distinction matters. The first is an incident-growth metric. The second is a breadth-of-exposure metric.

Still, the signal is clear. Phone scams were the most widely reported rising fraud category in the material provided, ahead of loyalty fraud, reported higher by 51% of retailers, and gift card theft or fraud, reported higher by 42%.

“After years of rising in-store theft, retailers are beginning to see levels stabilize, driven by investments in technology and employee training to strengthen store security and improve response to these crimes,” NRF Vice President for Asset Protection and Retail Operations David Johnston said.

XOOMAR analysis: this is not a clean victory lap. It looks more like displacement. Retailers hardened parts of the physical store, and offenders appear to be testing other weak points across the retail operation.

After Years of Store Theft Increases, the Case Counts Finally Bent Lower

The same 2026 study found shoplifting incidents fell 12.4% in 2025 compared with the previous year, while retail merchandise theft declined 8.1%. That is a meaningful reversal after the 2025 NRF report said retailers had reported an 18% increase in the average number of shoplifting incidents per year in 2024 versus 2023.

The report credits retailers’ investments in security technology, enhanced surveillance, employee training, and more detailed analysis of loss patterns. The 2025 NRF material also listed measures such as cameras, lighting, license plate readers, locking cases, and changed store layouts.

That creates a more complicated loss-prevention picture:

XOOMAR analysis: lower shoplifting case counts should not be treated as proof that total retail risk is shrinking. The source material does not provide total dollar losses by category. One fraud scheme can cause more financial damage than several low-value theft incidents, but the supplied data does not quantify that trade-off.

Last Week’s Release Shows Fraud Spreading Across External Theft Categories

The NRF research, released last week according to PYMNTS, frames the change as a move toward more sophisticated external theft and fraud. Johnston’s warning was blunt:

“However, significant challenges remain as organized criminals continue to exploit vulnerabilities throughout the retail environment as seen in the rise of various fraud schemes and thefts including cargo theft, phone scams and gift card fraud.”

That phrase, “throughout the retail environment,” is doing a lot of work. The supplied sources do not break down the specific mechanics of retail phone scams. They do not say whether the scams involve fake order changes, impersonation, refund manipulation, or pressure on store staff. Any claim like that would go beyond the record.

What the sources do show is broader movement across categories that sit outside classic aisle theft: phone scams, loyalty fraud, gift card theft or fraud, cargo theft, and digital and ecommerce frauds in the prior NRF cycle.

This is the central shift. Store security teams used to focus heavily on what could be seen: merchandise, exits, shelves, cameras, guards, and inventory gaps. The newer fraud picture forces retailers to connect store operations with ecommerce, payments, loyalty, customer service, and employee training.

For shoppers, that can translate into more friction. Retailers trying to cut fraud may add more checks around returns, accounts, cards, or gift cards. That comes at a moment when consumers and retailers are already dealing with other pressures, as XOOMAR has covered in Grocery Shock Knocks July Consumer Confidence Lower and Healey Profiteering Warning Rattles Food and Fuel Retailers.

The Technology Response Is Real, but AI Is Still Early

Retailers are adopting new technology, but the NRF report says artificial intelligence is still in early use for asset protection.

“Some technologies like AI-based ecommerce fraud detection analytics and generative AI tools and large language models used for routine tasks are more adopted by retailers today than other AI-based or AI-capable technologies,” the report said.

PYMNTS Intelligence data adds useful texture. Its research found retailers are using adaptive machine learning systems to identify anomalies in real time, reducing false positives by up to 85% while doubling compromised card detection. That is the strongest data point in the source material for why fraud tech spending is likely to remain a priority.

But adoption is uneven. PYMNTS also reported that only 37% of retailers use generative AI for fraud prevention, even though nearly three-quarters of surveyed merchants expected AI-driven fraud to grow.

The operating tension is obvious:

• Detection: Retailers want better tools to spot fraud faster.
• Customer experience: Retailers have to stop fraud without making legitimate shoppers feel blocked, delayed, or wrongly flagged.
• Budgets: The source material points to growing reliance on fraud-prevention technology, but does not establish a specific staffing or spending split.

XOOMAR analysis: that mix points toward automation. As fraud pressure spreads across more channels, retailers will lean harder on analytics, alerts, and rules engines. The risk is overcorrection, especially if honest shoppers get caught in false declines or slow service workflows.

The Senate Fight Reflects a Broader Organized Crime Problem

The NRF is also urging the U.S. Senate to pass the Combating Organized Retail Crime Act, which the group says would improve coordination among federal, state, and local law enforcement agencies.

The policy push fits the report’s broader finding that retail crime is not confined to store aisles. Retailers reported higher levels of repeat offenders and organized retail crime incidents, while NRF and other retail groups have continued to warn that organized retail crime can involve coordinated networks operating across jurisdictions.

Law enforcement coordination remains a central concern. The Senate push is built around the idea that better federal, state, and local cooperation could help retailers and investigators connect incidents that might otherwise look isolated.

That matters because fragmented information makes fraud patterns harder to see. If store theft, loyalty abuse, gift card fraud, ecommerce fraud, and phone scams sit in separate systems, retailers may miss repeat behavior that only becomes obvious when data is joined.

The Next Decision Point: Can Retailers Cut Fraud Without Treating Customers Like Suspects?

The next test is not whether retailers can reduce shoplifting counts. The 2026 NRF data suggests they already made progress there.

The harder test is whether they can build a wider loss-prevention perimeter without damaging the shopping experience. That perimeter now has to include store security, ecommerce fraud tools, employee training, loyalty controls, gift card monitoring, and customer-service procedures. The supplied sources support that direction, even if they do not specify every tactic retailers will use.

For payment firms and fraud-tech providers, the opportunity is clear but not limitless. Retailers are leaning more on fraud-prevention technology, yet they are also trying to avoid customer friction. Tools that reduce false positives, connect channels, and produce usable alerts will matter more than tools that simply add another dashboard.

The evidence that would confirm the thesis: continued declines in shoplifting alongside broader increases in phone scams, loyalty fraud, gift card fraud, or ecommerce fraud. The evidence that would weaken it: falling fraud reports across both physical and digital categories, with no rise in repeat offenders or organized retail crime.

For now, the NRF data points to a sharper conclusion. Retail theft is not disappearing. It is changing shape. The retailers that win will be the ones that lower losses without making honest customers feel like suspects.

Impact Analysis

• Retail crime appears to be shifting from visible shoplifting toward harder-to-detect fraud schemes.
• The NRF survey covers 66 companies, 143 brands and about $1.7 trillion in annual retail sales, giving the findings broad industry relevance.
• Retailers may need to redirect security investments from store theft prevention toward fraud detection, employee training and scam response.