Labour Overtakes Reform as Burnham Jolt Hits Polls

One week after Andy Burnham entered No 10, Labour overtakes Reform in a voter intention poll for the first time since March 2025, turning what looked like Nigel Farage’s long polling run into a live test of competence.

The weekly More in Common tracker puts Labour up four points to 28%, ahead of Reform UK on 24%, according to Guardian World. The timing matters. Burnham has spent his first week as prime minister pushing cost of living measures, while Reform has been hit by stories about undeclared gifts and donations, a longtime Farage adviser who is a convicted fraudster, and a Clacton byelection that has become a problem rather than a platform.

Burnham’s first week turns Labour overtakes Reform into a stress test

The phrase Labour overtakes Reform is doing more work than a normal polling headline. For months, the political story around Reform has rested on momentum. Farage’s party looked like the force setting the terms of debate, while Labour looked trapped in recovery mode.

This poll disrupts that narrative. It doesn’t prove Labour has rebuilt trust. It does show Burnham has bought attention fast.

More in Common’s Luke Tryl framed the result carefully:

“It’s only been a week since he entered office, but it’s clear that momentum is on the prime minister’s side.”

That is the right caveat. One poll is not a mandate. But politics runs on perceived direction as much as absolute numbers. MPs, activists, donors and local campaign teams all respond to movement. A four-point Labour rise immediately after a leadership change gives Burnham something Keir Starmer’s final period lacked in the supplied account: a simple story to tell about recovery.

XOOMAR analysis: Burnham’s advantage is that his opening message is blunt. Bills. Transport. Pubs. Work. Housing. These are easier to repeat than process-driven promises about reforming government machinery.

The 24 to 27 July tracker puts Labour on 28% and Reform on 24%

The More in Common poll was carried out between 24 and 27 July among 2,061 voters, according to the supplied related source material. The headline numbers are clear.

Tryl said Labour now holds its “highest vote share since the early months of this government in 2024.” He also said Reform and the Greens had dropped to their “lowest vote share in months,” suggesting Burnham’s cost of living focus may have appealed to voters Labour had lost “on both the left and right.”

The caution is just as important as the movement. The supplied material does not state a margin of error. Polls also depend on turnout models, weighting choices and whether respondents are registering a settled vote or a reaction to the week’s news cycle.

There is conflicting evidence too. A YouGov survey released on Friday put Reform ahead of Labour by 23% to 21%, with the Conservatives on 20%. That keeps the More in Common result in perspective. Labour overtakes Reform in one tracker, but the broader picture is not yet settled.

Cost of living politics gave Burnham a sharper opening than Westminster drama

Burnham’s first week has been heavy on measures designed to signal immediate relief. The supplied material says his announcements included a tax cut on energy bills, a cap on bus fares, and a cut to business rates for pubs and clubs.

The related source material adds more detail: Burnham said he would cut VAT on electricity bills from 5% to 0% for six months from October, saving the average household around £45. He confirmed the return of a £2 cap on bus fares in England, excluding London, from January. He also pledged a 20% cut in business rates for pubs, clubs and music venues from next April.

That agenda is politically useful because it gives Labour a message voters can test against daily life. A bus fare. An electricity bill. A local pub’s costs. These are tangible in a way that internal party resets are not.

Burnham responded to the poll by saying he would not get “carried away,” but was pleased to have “connected with people.” He said he would address “big issues” this week, including youth unemployment, social care and housing.

XOOMAR analysis: that next phase is riskier. Early retail-style cost relief can create goodwill. Youth unemployment, social care and housing are harder, slower and more exposed to delivery failure. If Burnham raises expectations faster than government can meet them, the same voters giving him a hearing can turn quickly.

Reform’s funding rows and Clacton farce hit the party’s clean-break pitch

Reform’s problem is not that 24% is weak. It is not. That number still makes Farage’s party a major force in British politics.

The problem is that the recent story has shifted from voter anger to party conduct. The Guardian reported that Farage was given £5m by crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne shortly before announcing he would stand in the 2024 general election. The parliamentary standards watchdog launched an investigation in May into whether the £5m fell within rules requiring MPs to declare potentially relevant gifts or donations received in the 12 months before entering parliament. Farage denies any breach of parliamentary rules.

The supplied material also says George Cottrell, a longtime Farage aide and convicted fraudster, provided funding for Farage’s operation, including staffing, security and housing. Payments to Reform are now being investigated by the Metropolitan police, including two donations of £250,000 made to the party by Britain Means Business in the weeks before the 2024 general election. Reform UK denies wrongdoing.

Then there is Clacton. Lord Ashcroft’s focus groups found anger among constituents, with voters accusing Farage of using them as “pawns in his little game” after a byelection triggered by his resignation. The related source material says the byelection is due on 13 August, with major parties declining to field candidates and 34 candidates confirmed.

XOOMAR analysis: Reform’s insurgent brand works best when the conversation is about establishment failure. It weakens when the subject becomes money, advisers, police scrutiny and campaign discipline.

Labour MPs, Reform loyalists and Conservatives will read the same poll differently

For Labour MPs, the poll offers relief. Burnham’s elevation was a gamble after the party’s standing had deteriorated. A More in Common poll in January had Reform on 31% and Labour on 19%, according to the supplied related source material. Moving from that gap to a Labour lead gives MPs a reason to believe the reset may be working.

For Reform supporters, the same dip may be dismissed as a media-driven reaction to negative headlines. That matters because scrutiny can harden core voters even while pushing softer supporters away.

The Conservatives face a different problem. They are unchanged at 22% in the More in Common tracker. A weaker Reform could eventually help them in some contests, but a revived Labour under Burnham makes it harder for Conservatives to argue that the government is simply collapsing under its own weight.

For ordinary voters, the calculation is less tactical. The question is simpler: who looks focused on easing financial pressure, and who looks distracted by scandal?

XOOMAR readers will recognize the need to separate confirmed evidence from a fast-forming narrative. That’s the same editorial discipline we apply across global-trends coverage, from Twin Falls In-N-Out Shooting Kills Multiple at Lunch to After Pulte Backlash, Senate Hands Jay Clayton DNI Job. In this case, the confirmed evidence is a polling swing. The narrative is whether it becomes a durable shift.

The 13 August Clacton vote and the next trackers decide whether this is a bounce or a break

The next test is repetition. If Labour overtakes Reform again across multiple polls, Burnham’s team can argue that the cost of living agenda has changed the political weather. If Reform stabilizes, the More in Common tracker may look like a one-week shock caused by bad headlines.

Three scenarios now matter:

• Labour consolidation: Burnham keeps attention on bills, jobs, social care and housing, while polling confirms movement beyond one tracker.
• Reform recovery: Farage’s party absorbs the controversy cycle, holds its core vote and uses Clacton to regain control of the story.
• Volatile mid-20s politics: Labour, Reform and the Conservatives remain close enough that no party can claim durable command.

The evidence to track is specific: repeated polling confirmation, Burnham’s personal ratings, Reform’s handling of funding questions, and the tone of the 13 August Clacton byelection.

Burnham has bought Labour attention, not loyalty. Reform has lost momentum, not relevance. The party that turns the next month into proof of competence will shape the next phase of UK politics.

The Stakes

• Labour has moved ahead of Reform UK for the first time since March 2025.
• Andy Burnham’s early premiership is gaining momentum around cost-of-living messaging.
• Reform’s polling lead is now under pressure as controversies test Nigel Farage’s party.