On Thursday during Asian trading, AUD/USD climbed into the 0.7020 region after stronger Australian jobs data revived bets on another Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike. The latest AUD/USD price forecast now hinges on whether buyers can hold the pair above 0.7000 and push through nearby resistance, according to FXStreet.
XOOMAR Intelligence
Analyst Take
The move puts the pair back near an over one-month high set on Tuesday. It also gives Aussie bulls a cleaner technical setup, though not a free run. A softer US Dollar helped the rally, but oil rally pressure, US-Iran tensions, and Fed rate-hike bets could still slow the advance.
Thursday in Asia: AUD/USD price forecast turns on jobs-led break above 0.7000
The trigger was Australia’s upbeat employment report. FXStreet said the data lifted bets that the RBA could deliver another interest rate hike, giving the Australian Dollar fresh support during the Asian session.
That matters because AUD/USD is trying to build on gains above the 0.7000 handle. The pair’s push to the 0.7020 area is not just a chart event. It reflects a shift in rate expectations after the labor-market release.
The source does not provide the underlying jobs figures, so the market signal is the key verified point: traders read the report as strong enough to increase the odds of another RBA hike. That narrows the immediate story. The Aussie is rising because the employment data strengthened the case for tighter Australian policy, while the US Dollar softened modestly.
For adjacent XOOMAR coverage of Australian dollar setups, see AUD/USD Bulls Defend 0.7000 as Dollar Bears Pounce and Rate Gap Rescues AUD/JPY as Aussie Bulls Regain Grip. Those links offer related market context, while this move is specifically tied to Thursday’s jobs-driven AUD/USD reaction.
After the jobs print: RBA hike bets give the Aussie its rate cushion
The rate channel is doing the heavy lifting. If traders raise the probability of another RBA hike, the Australian Dollar gets support through expected yield differentials, particularly when the USD is already showing modest weakness.
XOOMAR analysis: the cleanest read is that the jobs report reduced room for dovish interpretation. The source says the release was upbeat and that it lifted RBA hike bets. That is enough to explain why buyers stepped into AUD/USD, but not enough to claim a durable trend without follow-through.
The Australian Dollar also outperformed across the FX board in the source’s currency table. It was strongest against the New Zealand Dollar, with AUD up 0.24% versus NZD. It also gained 0.21% against USD, 0.17% against GBP, 0.19% against JPY, 0.10% against CAD, 0.14% against CHF, and 0.07% against EUR.
That broad AUD strength supports the idea that Thursday’s move was not just a weak-dollar story. The jobs report gave the Aussie its own catalyst.
Australian Dollar performance cited by FXStreet:
- AUD/USD: AUD up 0.21%
- AUD/NZD: AUD up 0.24%
- AUD/JPY: AUD up 0.19%
- AUD/GBP: AUD up 0.17%
- AUD/CHF: AUD up 0.14%
Tuesday’s high still matters as oil and Fed expectations defend the dollar
The bullish case is not one-sided. FXStreet flagged escalating US-Iran tensions and supply-disruption concerns as drivers of crude oil strength, with oil rising to a fresh high since June 11.
That matters for AUD/USD because higher oil prices can feed inflation concerns. In the source’s read, that dynamic is bolstering hawkish Fed expectations, which could limit deeper losses for the US Dollar.
This is the tension inside the trade. The Aussie has a domestic catalyst from jobs data and RBA repricing. The dollar has a defensive support line from inflation fears and Fed expectations.
FXStreet’s technical setup points to a modest bullish near-term bias while AUD/USD holds above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and the 100-period EMA on the 4-hour chart.
The source also describes the pair as risk-sensitive, which matters when geopolitical tension is rising. A stronger jobs print can lift AUD/USD, but aggressive bullish positioning is harder if traders are also pricing safe-haven demand for the Greenback.
For readers tracking the crude side of that pressure, XOOMAR’s separate oil technical coverage is here: WTI Price Forecast Pits Oil Bulls against $88 Barrier.
Next trading decision: 0.7033, 0.7072 or a slide back under 0.6993
The immediate technical test is 0.7033, the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement. That is the first resistance level FXStreet identifies after the push into the 0.7020 region.
If buyers clear that zone, the next hurdle is 0.7072, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Above that, 0.7129 and the cycle-high region around 0.7201 mark stronger barriers.
The downside map is just as important. Immediate support sits at 0.6993, the 38.2% retracement, followed by the 100-period EMA at 0.6976. A deeper pullback would expose 0.6944, while the broader bullish structure would only come under pressure near the anchor low around 0.6865.
| AUD/USD level | Role in the setup |
|---|---|
| 0.7033 | Initial resistance, 50.0% Fibonacci retracement |
| 0.7072 | Next upside hurdle, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement |
| 0.7129 | Higher resistance, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement |
| 0.7201 | Cycle-high region |
| 0.6993 | Immediate support, 38.2% retracement |
| 0.6976 | 100-period EMA support |
| 0.6944 | Deeper pullback level |
| 0.6865 | Anchor low area threatening broader bullish structure |
The momentum picture is constructive, not stretched. FXStreet cited the RSI at 59.45, which supports a bullish bias without signaling overbought conditions. The MACD histogram, however, is flat just below the zero line, suggesting upside momentum is positive but not forceful.
That makes the next phase straightforward. The AUD/USD price forecast stays tilted higher while the pair holds above the 0.6993 to 0.6976 support band, but buyers need a break through 0.7033 and then 0.7072 to prove the jobs-data rally has legs. If Fed expectations keep cushioning the dollar, the first post-jobs surge may need more than RBA hike bets to extend.
Disclaimer: This XOOMAR analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial, investment, legal, tax, or professional advice. It does not provide buy, sell, hold, price-target, portfolio, or personalized recommendations. Verify information independently and consult qualified professionals before making decisions.
The Bottom Line
- Stronger Australian jobs data increased expectations for another RBA rate hike, supporting the Aussie.
- Holding above 0.7000 is the key near-term test for whether AUD/USD bulls can extend the move.
- A softer US Dollar helped the rally, but Fed hawkishness and geopolitical risks could limit upside.
AUD/USD Key Levels
Primary Sources & Disclosures
Disclaimer: Content on XOOMAR is produced using AI-assisted research, drafting, and verification workflows and is intended for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal, tax, medical, or professional advice of any kind. All analysis reflects available information at the time of publication and may not be current. Verify information independently and consult qualified professionals before making decisions. Editorial policy
Written by
XOOMAR Insights Team
Research and Editorial Desk
The XOOMAR Insights Team pairs automated research with human editorial judgment. We track hundreds of sources across technology, fintech, trading, SaaS, and cybersecurity, cross-check the facts, and explain what happened, why it matters, and what to watch next. We do not just rewrite headlines. Every article is fact-checked and scored for reliability before it goes live, and we link back to the original sources so you can verify anything yourself.
