July CPI Prints 3.36%, Eases from June

The Consumer Price Index for July 2026 printed 3.36%, down 0.17 percentage points from the previous month's reading on Wednesday, August 12. That headline drop against the June figure comes after a rapid three-month climb earlier this year, placing the current measure 0.89 percentage points below the stored peak. It lands in a context of cooling payroll figures, steady central bank policy, and decelerating economic growth. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis data show the tape moving. As with all XOOMAR calendar data, no consensus forecast is stored; the reading stands against the previous value on the same row.

The Headline Drop

The headline July 2026 CPI actual printed 3.36%. It fell from the 3.53% recorded in June. This -0.17 percentage point difference marks a second month of cooling after the tape's measured peak of 4.25% in May 2026.

The XOOMAR reading is straightforward: the latest actual versus its immediate predecessor. There's no forecast to beat or miss. The narrative is in the series itself.

Inflation’s Wild Ride

Looking at the nine-month tape reveals three distinct regimes. It began with a descent to the deepest trough, bottoming at 2.39% in January 2026 after a fall from 2.74% in November 2025. That was the calm.

The second phase was a sharp acceleration. From February's 2.41%, inflation rocketed to 3.26% in March, 3.81% in April, and hit the stored high of 4.25% in May 2026. The climb added 1.86 percentage points in just three releases.

Now, the tape shows the third act: cooling. The June reading of 3.53% started the retreat, and July's 3.36% extends it. The slide from May's peak totals 0.89 percentage points over the last two prints.

BLS year-over-year percent. No consensus forecast is stored.

A Sudden Payroll Turn

The labor market delivered its own surprise earlier in the month. Payrolls for July, released Friday, August 7, printed at -23,000 jobs. This marks the first negative reading since February 2026, which saw -156,000 jobs, and a reversal from June's gain of +20,000 jobs.

That July figure is notable, but the broader story is a deceleration. Hiring peaked at +214,000 jobs in March 2026. Since then, monthly gains have stepped down: +148,000 in April, +63,000 in May, +20,000 in June, and now the negative July print. The slide from the March high is steep.

The Fed Holds, and Holds Again

Against this backdrop, the Federal Open Market Committee hasn't moved. The July 2026 meeting, held Tuesday, July 29, kept the midpoint at 3.625%. That's the fourth consecutive meeting with an unchanged policy rate.

A bit of recent history fleshes this out. The last time the Fed changed its rate was at the January 2026 meeting, when it moved from 3.875% to 3.625%. That's a -25 basis point cut. Since then, every meeting, March, April, June, and now July, has been a hold. No change in nearly seven months.

Most recent ten FOMC prints. Actual is the midpoint on the XOOMAR calendar.

The Growth Picture Slows

Before the July 2026 CPI landed, economic output data also signaled deceleration. The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Quarter 2026 (Advance Estimate) on Thursday, July 30. It showed growth of 1.5%, a step down from the previous quarter's 2.1%. This reading, like the others, has no forecast stored for context, it's just the figure against its predecessor.

Matching Tapes to Forecasts

It's worth stating clearly: the XOOMAR calendar stores official prints and their previous values. It does not store a consensus forecast. You shouldn't write that a CPI "beat" or "missed" expectations, because none are in the dataset. The analysis is built purely on the actuals and their previous incarnations, a raw look at the data as it arrives from official sources like the BLS, BEA, and FOMC.

Where Rates Stand Today

Related data from the Central Bank Rates hub shows the US policy rate sitting at 3.625% as of Monday, August 11. the dataset notes that rate was unchanged that day. That figure lines up with the July FOMC decision and the streak of holds. It's a static point against which the moving parts of inflation and payrolls play.

What the Prediction Markets Say

Separate from the official data, prediction markets are placing their own odds. Polymarket prices for September's FOMC meeting, active at the time of the July CPI print on August 12, show a market leaning heavily toward no change.

The price for "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" stood at 71.50% implied probability on a volume of $8.42 million. The odds of a 25 basis point cut were just 0.90% implied. A 25 basis point hike carried a 28.50% implied probability.

This isn't XOOMAR forecasting, and the dataset doesn't show a causal link between the CPI print and these prices. They're simply a separate signal on the same timeline.

Other relevant contract prices at the time:

• "Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?": 85.15% implied probability for "Yes".
• "US recession by end of 2026?": 92.00% implied probability for "No".

Taken together, the tape from August presents a slowing economic pulse: inflation cooling but elevated, payrolls contracting, growth moderating, and policy locked in place. The market's bet, for now, is that the Fed's hold streak will extend another meeting. For further context, explore the full datasets on XOOMAR's Economic Calendar, Central Bank Rates, and Predictions hubs, or dive into the Calendar API.