Bitcoin Speculators Slash Bearish Bets as Capital Returns

The Latest Print

The latest Commitment of Traders report, dated Tuesday, August 11, shows leveraged funds held a net position of -7,052 contracts. This negative number means they were net short by that amount, a slight decrease from the prior week's net short of -7,240 contracts. Open interest, the total number of outstanding contracts, rose by 1,042 to 21,185, suggesting fresh capital entered the market during the period. This snapshot captures a marginal reduction in bearish bets from the leveraged category, which includes hedge funds and commodity trading advisors.

Report date	Open interest	Lev fund long	Lev fund short	Lev fund net	Asset manager net
2026-08-04	20,143	4,243	11,483	-7,240 contracts	+2,542 contracts
2026-08-11	21,185	4,997	12,049	-7,052 contracts	+2,234 contracts
Source: CFTC Traders in Financial Futures. Leveraged-fund net is long minus short.

Viewed week-on-week, the net short position decreased by 188 contracts. Asset managers, often seen as a proxy for institutional investors, saw their net long position shrink to +2,234 contracts.

A Look At The Last Three Months

Zooming out reveals two clear extremes within the stored twelve-week window. The period began with leveraged funds at their most pessimistic point in the window, net short 8,961 contracts on May 19. That deep bearishness receded over the following month, reaching a relative high, or least-short point, of 5,995 contracts on June 9. Since that local peak, the leveraged-fund net short position has generally deepened again, culminating in a second, smaller bearish spike of 7,949 contracts on July 21 before moderating to the current 7,052.

Broadly, the data shows leveraged funds have been persistently net short for every week captured. Open interest has been similarly dynamic, falling from 23,000 in mid-May to a low of 18,832 on July 7 before recovering to over 21,000 in the latest two prints. This suggests periods of capital withdrawal followed by renewed engagement, though not necessarily aligned with shifts in leveraged-fund sentiment.

Asset Managers Hold Their Ground

While leveraged funds have spent the entire twelve-week period net short, asset managers have maintained a consistent net long stance. Their position has ranged from a high of 4,821 contracts on May 19 to a low of 2,234 contracts in the latest report. This persistent divergence creates a classic speculative versus institutional setup, where asset managers (the longs) and leveraged funds (the shorts) are effectively trading against each other.

In the latest data, asset managers held a net long of 2,234 contracts. This stands in direct opposition to the leveraged funds' net short of 7,052 contracts. This structural tension is a recurring feature of the Bitcoin COT data during this window, where one group's conviction provides the liquidity for the other's contrary bet.

Ether Positions In The Same Sour Tide

The latest CFTC data also shows positioning for Ether cash-settled futures, a separate market that often mirrors broader crypto sentiment trends. As of the same report date, Tuesday, August 11, leveraged funds in that market held a net short position of 3,998 contracts, a moderate increase from 3,205 the prior week. XOOMAR analysis cautions that this is a related but distinct tape; the Bitcoin COT print did not cause the Ether positioning, but both reflect a souring speculative mood.

Report date	Open interest	Lev fund net
2026-08-04	20,431	-3,205 contracts
2026-08-11	21,970	-3,998 contracts
Related CFTC tape. Not caused by the Bitcoin print.

Over the eight-week window stored for Ether, leveraged funds have also been consistently net short, with a peak bearishness of 7,961 contracts on July 14. The recent trend shows a moderation from those extremes, similar to the late-July easing seen in Bitcoin COT data. Open interest in the Ether market has followed a comparable path of recent expansion, rising from 20,431 to 21,970 week-over-week.

What The Numbers Represent

The numbers in the COT report represent futures contract counts, not a dollar value or a quantity of Bitcoin. A contract is an agreement to buy or sell a specific asset at a future date. When leveraged funds are net short 7,052 contracts, it means their total short contracts exceed their total long contracts by that amount. It does not directly quantify the dollar value at risk, nor does it reveal whether these shorts are part of a hedge for other positions or purely directional speculation. The report is a snapshot of positions held as of the Tuesday close each week, released by the CFTC with a three-day delay.

The methodology is straightforward. The net figure for leveraged funds is calculated by subtracting their reported short contracts from their reported long contracts. A negative result means they are net short. For asset managers, the same calculation yields a positive net figure, indicating a net long position. The source is the CFTC's weekly Traders in Financial Futures (TFF) report.

The Gaps In The Tape

This stored data window provides a clear view of the last twelve weekly Bitcoin COT reports and recent Ether reports, but it has its limits. Crucially, the price of Bitcoin on each report date is not included in this COT data. This omission means the analysis can't directly correlate the depth of short positions with the asset's price action. The next CFTC report, which would cover trading activity through August 18, is not yet in the stored window, so any forecast about a reversal or continuation of the trend would be speculation. Furthermore, the data doesn't distinguish between speculative shorts and those used for hedging complex trading strategies, a nuance that can change the interpretation of the leveraged funds' bearish bets.

Collectively, the data paints a picture of a speculative community that has been leaning bearish on Bitcoin for at least three months, with that sentiment spilling over into the Ether futures market. Institutional investors, represented by asset managers, have consistently provided the opposing bullish pressure. The latest print shows a slight step back from peak bearishness, but the fundamental divide remains wide open.

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