August CPI Prints 3.40%, Up 0.04 Points

The latest inflation print lands as central bankers hold steady and markets price a near-certain rate hike for the Federal Reserve's September meeting.

The Consumer Price Index for August 2026 printed 3.40% on a Friday, September 11, ticking up 0.04 percentage points from the prior month's 3.36% reading. This latest data point arrived just as the Federal Reserve's current policy rate stands at 3.625% following four consecutive meetings without a move. Markets participants, tracking official data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, are now grappling with its implications against a backdrop of cooling labor data and anchored policy expectations.

The Lead Number: August 3.40%

The headline is a 3.40% year-over-year inflation rate for August 2026, released on Friday, September 11. It's a small increase of 0.04 points from the July 2026 CPI of 3.36%. XOOMAR does not store a consensus forecast in this dataset, so there's no narrative of a "miss" or "beat." This CPI reading, taken from the dataset's final row, caps nearly six years of volatile price data stored in this window. The figure places the economy firmly above the Federal Reserve's long-standing 2% target, a familiar position from the post-pandemic era, now extended into the late 2020s.

The Inflation Ladder: Peak, Trough, and Today

The tape of CPI actuals, from January 2021 to August 2026, tells a clear story in three chapters. The first was the climb from 1.37% in January 2021 to a peak of 8.98% in June 2022. That ascent was sharp. It took inflation from what the dataset identifies as its lowest CPI actual on this tape (1.37% in 2021-01) to its highest CPI actual on this tape (8.98% in 2022-06).

The second chapter was the disinflation that followed. From that 8.98% peak in June 2022, price pressures cooled notably. A more recent local low of 2.38% was reached in March 2025. This was a substantial but incomplete victory, as inflation never settled below the Fed's 2% target.

The final, current chapter is the plateau and re-acceleration. Since that March 2025 low, the CPI has bounced in the mid-twos and now the mid-threes. The August print of 3.40% sits closer numerically to the 2022 peak than it does to the central banker's goal. It reflects a persistent inflationary regime that has resisted the Fed's policy tightening and cooling labor market.

Table: Recent CPI year-over-year actuals on this tape (BLS). No consensus forecast is stored.

Jobs Picture Shows a Marked Deceleration

The labor market data stored alongside the CPI tells a story of dramatic cooling. The most recent jobs print for August 2026 showed +162,000 jobs, a sharp improvement from the previous stored value of +21,000 jobs. But zooming out reveals a stark slowdown in hiring momentum from the recovery's peak.

Earlier in this stored window, job gains were enormous, like +4,631,000 jobs in June 2020 and +942,000 jobs in July 2021. Those prints feel like a different era. By July 2026, the tape shows a loss of -23,000 jobs. The trajectory, especially in 2026, has been volatile but distinctly weaker. The March 2026 high of +214,000 jobs this year stands in sharp contrast to the erratic, often negative, prints that followed through the summer. This decelerating jobs tape, while not yet showing sustained losses, points to a labor market that's lost its white-hot heat.

Fed's Uncommon Run of Four Straight Holds

On the policy side, the Fed has entered a period of prolonged stasis. The latest ten FOMC prints on this tape show a clear pattern: a series of cuts that ended in early 2026, followed by a pause.

The last change was a 25 basis-point cut at the January 2026 meeting, which moved the rate from 3.875% to 3.625%. Nothing has moved since. The Fed has racked up 4 consecutive holds through the July 2026 meeting, leaving the midpoint rate at 3.625%. This is an extended period of inaction, especially following a prior string of meetings that featured frequent adjustments.

Other Anchors in the Tape

Beyond inflation and jobs, recent economic growth also shows a cooling trend. The latest GDP print stored is the Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Quarter 2026 (Advance Estimate). It came in at 1.5%, down from the prior print of 2.1%, according to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. As with the CPI, the dataset does not store a forecast, so the 0.6-point deceleration stands alone as a fact. Slower growth, cooler hiring, and persistent inflation create an obvious dilemma for the central bank.

Policy Rate Papers Over the Unchanged Split

The broader monetary policy tape confirms the static stance. The latest stored day for the United States policy rate, from the related Central Bank Rates dataset, shows a rate of 3.625% on 2026-09-08, unchanged that day. This daily series, which tracks the effective fed funds rate, aligns precisely with the FOMC midpoint from the July meeting. The "unchanged" flag underscores that the market is not acting on new policy signals. It's simply waiting. You can view the live series on the Central Bank Rates hub.

How the Polymarket Bets Stack Up

The prediction markets paint a vivid picture of near-term expectations, entirely detached from the August CPI print and the cooling jobs data. In the separate Predictions dataset, the smart money is betting heavily on a September hike.

For the question "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?", the price implies an 81.50% chance of "No," meaning a change is expected. The overwhelming consensus is that the change will be a hike. The contract "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" has an implied probability of 80.50% for "Yes." The odds of a cut in September are priced at a near-zero 0.45%.

Longer-term, traders are pricing in a full policy freeze for the year. The market for "Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?" shows a 93.15% implied probability for "Yes." It’s a bet that, even after a possible September hike, the Fed is done moving for the year. Notably, the recession contract for 2026 shows low odds, with only an 8.50% implied probability of "Yes." It’s a crucial XOOMAR reading: the market sees a hot-and-cold economy managed by a cautious Fed, not a looming downturn. It's critical to remember these are Polymarket prices, not XOOMAR forecasts, and this dataset does not show they were caused by this CPI release.

Table: Selection of Polymarket prices. These are not XOOMAR forecasts and are not shown to be caused by the CPI print.

What's Not in the Tape

This stored window, by design, focuses on headline prints. It does not contain consensus forecasts, so no pre-release expectations can be compared to the actuals. Similarly, there is no breakdown for core CPI, shelter, energy, or the unemployment rate, only the top-line CPI and payroll numbers are stored. No revisions beyond the "previous" field in each row are shown. The data tells you what landed and what the last reported figure was, and that's the full story. For those looking to build their own analysis, the underlying data is accessible via the Calendar API.

The picture from this data window is one of crosscurrents. The July 2026 CPI is gone, replaced by an August print that's slightly hotter. The Fed hasn't budged in four meetings, yet the market is convinced a hike is coming in just a few days. Jobs growth is down from its stratospheric highs. And the slow-growth, high-inflation, low-recession-risk regime appears to be holding for now. The tape, from the peak to today, shows how hard the last mile of inflation control can be.

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